Please Stay Home - The Statistics

[clink]

 I was googling the percentage of corona virus deaths per percentage of population(not per confirmed cases, which is what kept coming up in the searches) to get perspective on the death rate as we have little general population testing to date. I came across this article in The Hill that had numbers per population as of April 16. I hadn't heard of The Hill.

 What is valid in this, relating to The Statistics? There are a lot of opinions, perspectives and unknowns right now. Please comment.

 https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/493370-keeping-the-coronavirus-death-toll-in-perspective

Keeping the coronavirus death toll in perspective
BY HEATHER MAC DONALD, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 04/18/20 08:00 AM EDT  2,103THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN AND NOT THE VIEW OF THE HILL

As governors and mayors debate when to lift their coronavirus stay-at-home orders, public health experts predict a flood of deaths should businesses be allowed to reopen before universal testing or a vaccine for the disease is available. These are the same experts whose previous apocalyptic models of coronavirus fatalities and shortages of hospital beds and ventilators have proved wildly inaccurate. It may be useful to look at some numbers for perspective.

As of 3 p.m. Eastern on April 16, there were 30,920 coronavirus deaths in the U.S. New York state accounted for 14,198 — or 46 percent — of those deaths. New York City accounted for 11,477 of New York state’s deaths and 37 percent of national deaths. This week, New York City started counting deaths as coronavirus fatalities if the patient had not been tested for the disease but was suspected postmortem of having it. This relaxed standard increased the U.S. death count by 17 percent. Other jurisdictions will inevitably follow suit.

The national coronavirus deaths represent a death rate of 9.4 per 100,000 of the U.S. population. Take out the New York fatalities and the New York share of the national population, and the coronavirus death rate for the rest of the country is 5.4 per 100,000 of the U.S. population.


In 2018, there were 2.8 million deaths in the U.S. from all causes. That is a death rate of 723.6 per 100,000, 77 times the national coronavirus death rate. The death rate for heart disease in 2018 was 163.6 per 100,000, or 17.4 times the national coronavirus death rate. (There were 647,457 heart disease deaths in 2017, the last year for which such numbers are available.) The influential Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is now predicting 68,841 U.S. coronavirus deaths by August. Even if this latest estimate is accurate for once, that would make for a death rate of about 21 per 100,000, comparable to the 21.4 per 100,000 death rate for diabetes in 2018.

The year 2018 saw 708,000 deaths every three months. We are destroying tens of millions of people’s livelihoods for 30,000 deaths over three months, a number that will barely move the needle on the all-cause death count. The loss of each of those 30,000 victims is heartbreaking to their families and acquaintances, especially when the victim dies in isolation.

But the damage being wrought by the economic shutdown is also heartbreaking and is also a public health issue. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) announced on April 15 that New York would decide which businesses could reopen based on how “essential” they were. To its employees, every business is essential. The judgement of necessity is either arbitrary or political, as the forced closure of abortion clinics in several states demonstrates.

Many of the 22 million workers who have been laid off recently (more than a tenth of the workforce) now have no way to pay their bills and are becoming desperate. There were more than 67,000 drug overdose deaths in 2018; these so-called deaths of despair will very likely increase this year.  

Up to a third of small businesses may never reopen. The effects of the shutdown are cascading through every aspect of society in ways too complex to fully comprehend. Supply chains have been thrown into chaos by the mandated closures. Planning future production is almost impossible with consumer and business demand so unpredictable. Manufacturing output has seen the largest decline in more than 70 years. Less developed countries that depend on exporting their raw materials face civil unrest if their populations remain unemployed. Poverty is the greatest cause of death worldwide. The coronavirus panic will stunt the lives of millions of children across the globe.

To be concerned about the effects of the global shutdown is not to be indifferent to human suffering; it is to be moved by that suffering. Public health experts are understandably focused on one thing: using every possible mechanism to eradicate the virus. But balancing those efforts against other social needs lies outside their professional competence. Funding for current and future public health initiatives alone depends on keeping private economic activity alive, but the tax base is being decimated.  

The outbreak in New York City is not a harbinger of things to come for the rest of the country. New York City combines a high immigrant population, high residential density and high use of public transport. Los Angeles and Orange counties in California also have large immigrant populations, but most of those immigrants travel by car, and they live in neighborhoods still characterized by the suburban bungalow. California has over 1,000 deaths as of April 18; that number is not going to explode 13 times in the coming weeks to reach New York State's 13,362. Iowa had 53 deaths as of April 16. Should it be in lockdown?

New York is representative in two senses, however: the high proportion of nursing home deaths and the profile of the deceased. Sixteen percent of New York’s coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes as of April 10. Nationwide, if a state is seeing a spike, it is happening in facilities for the elderly. More than 3,000 deaths nationwide are linked to such institutions, according to the Associated Press. They serve a tragically and uniquely vulnerable population. The nursing home industry was already a national shame before this pandemic. Whether or not this high death rate forces a reconsideration of how Americans care for aging parents and how much they are willing to pay for that care, for now it is imperative that nursing homes step up their game regarding cleanliness and disinfection.  

The coronavirus targets the elderly frail with preexisting morbidities, as had been apparent from the highly detailed Italian data. As of April 12 in New York City, 97 percent of all coronavirus deaths had serious preexisting conditions, where the presence or absence of underlying conditions was known. The death rate for coronavirus among individuals 75 and older is 63 times higher than the death rate for New Yorkers aged 18 to 44. More than three-quarters of all deaths have been among people over 65 in New York City, a proportion replicated or exceeded elsewhere. This concentration of cases and deaths among the already sick elderly means that sweeping stay-at-home orders and business shutdowns are overly broad.

Future efforts should focus on protecting at-risk seniors, but businesses should be allowed to reopen at their discretion. Some may not if their employees don’t feel safe. Consumers have been so spooked by the nonstop media images of hazmat suits and hearses that they may stay away anyway. Nearly four-fifths of respondents in a CNN poll taken April 3 through April 6 knew no one infected by the coronavirus, yet 47 percent thought it was likely that they or someone in their family would contract the disease — an unrealistic assessment of their risk.

On Wednesday, Cuomo said that the pandemic response will be over “when people know ‘I’m 100 percent safe, and I don’t have to worry about this.’” That 100 percent safety expectation is not how we conduct the rest of our lives. There are upward of 40,000 highway deaths a year because we value our time and convenience more than the safety that could be achieved by lowering driving speeds to 25 miles an hour.

There will be more lives lost to the coronavirus, each of them tragic. But a greater tragedy is unfolding before us from this exclusive focus on one cause of death and the draconian measures being taken to avert it.

Heather Mac Donald is the Thomas W. Smith fellow at the Manhattan Institute and the author of “The Diversity Delusion.”

[F4?]

The sad part is it’s not the mortality, it’s the strain on the health care system. Plus the long term strain as those who recover, will have some messed up issues to deal with.

All I can say is this shit is real.

A friends daughter caught it while in Europe. Only 19 years old, and it kicked her ass.
Yes, she survived, but still had to be hospitalized. She is hopefully lucky to have good lung function.

So it’s funny to see people pass it off as a flu, or something not so bad, just over hyped.

[F4?]

It’s all Klinks fault.

[JC w KC redux]

There are a lot of opinions, perspectives and unknowns right now. Please comment.

That is my comment. Did you see the debate between the dog and the cat in the Wall Street Journal?
You didn't expect us to have a serious discussion on here did you?

Got any plans for tomorrow at 4:20?
Don't be a prude...dude. 

[waldo]

Yep, Socratease.

 

If Clink is Socrateae, then I'm Plate-O. The shelter in place is causing my personal horizons to expand three times a day.

[clink]

Got any plans for tomorrow at 4:20?
Don't be a prude...dude.  Laugh Out Loud

 Not yet yeti. Is your deck big enough for legal social distancing?

[clink]

  

No, you can’t disinfect the inside of your body by drinking alcohol

The World Health Organization’s broad mission is to advocate for health and healthcare across the world, and a big part of their daily messaging is providing granular tips for healthy living. According to CNN, the WHO’s latest missive is a reminder that alcohol is bad for you, and that you can’t actually kill the coronavirus lurking inside of you by hosing down your insides with sweet, sweet ethanol. Who knew?

While the six-page fact sheet contains a slew of information you probably don’t want to hear while you play your 12th consecutive hour of Animal Crossing and season your cans of White Claw with your tears, the section labeled “General myths about alcohol and COVID-19” is nothing short of fascinating. According to the WHO, the following myths have gained enough traction that they require active debunking:

   https://thetakeout.com/who-urges-restrictions-on-drinking-purchasing-alcohol-1842923541

[clink]

The shelter in place is causing my personal horizons to expand three times a day.

 Waldo, I thought you said Tecate was anti-viral.

[mynameismud]

The Hill has some really good reporting.  But, be careful they also have one or two "reporters" that are complete hacks.  After following for a while you will learn which ones to ignore.

  I hadn't heard of The Hill.

[mynameismud]

I disagree with the premise of the article.  The reason for the shutdowns is to keep the healthcare system from being completely overwhelmed which in some areas it already is.  The problem with COVID-19 is how easily it is transmitted and how devastating it is to the elderly and those with health issues.  Look at the stats coming from nursing homes.  There is an interesting Trevor Noah interview with Bill Gates.  Do a search and find it.  Bill Gates like him or not is probably one of the more informed individuals out there in regards to viruses due to his work abroad with Malaria and other diseases.  

Also, seriously listen to Dr. Fauci he is respected around world as one of the pre-eminent individuals in his field.  Seriously he is the best of the best, the US should be grateful for this guy and listening to every word that he says.  You can search and find a couple of old interviews of this guy.  

In Italy a group wanted to know how accurate the reporting was on the number of COVID-19 deaths were so they looked at the number of deaths per region per month for the last 10 years.  Looking at every month for 10 years gave them an average number of deaths per month.  It also provided a high and low water mark.  What they found was the number of deaths during the outbreak is significantly higher than normal and that looking at numbers from previous years the number of COVID-19 deaths were higher than reported, significantly higher.  I think when we look at the numbers this way in the US we will find the same thing because we do not have the means to test.

Those that are saying that this is no worse than the flu or diabetes are painting a false narrative.  If you want a qualified opinion listen to Fauci or listen to Gates.  that is my opinion.

[waldo]

Waldo, I thought you said Tecate was anti-viral.

Tecate is most effective against lurking infections, but only if you're holding one in your hand. This minor inconvenience does affect mobility.

[clink]

 Differnt(not a typo, just seems fitting) numbers. Good new as to the fatality percentage of those infected(.3% to .15%? my math must be wrong) if this study's data holds up. Still early according to these numbers of total infected at 4.1%.

 My daughter Rose says they have shut down a lot of the hospital where she works and cut staff hours. (El Camino Hospital is a non-profit hospital with 420 beds based on a 41-acre campus in Mountain View, California. 420 beds JC! WHO knew?  ) She was told to stay home again today, 12 weeks to go till her baby's due date, she has enough on her mind now as it is.
  

KEY POINTS
The Covid-19 outbreak in Los Angeles County could be up to 55 times bigger than the number of confirmed cases, according to new research from the University of Southern California and the LA Department of Public Health.

The data, if correct, would mean that the county’s fatality rate is lower than originally thought.

With just 4% of the population infected with the disease, LA County is still very early in the epidemic, said USC professor Neeraj Sood, who led the study.

  https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHcuTn_NbUyKt3YmDSxjx7AqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow2Nb3CjDivdcCMP3ungY?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen


 Happy 42020  

[clink]

 
 This caught my eye. I was born in Anchorage. It's about the 1918 Influenza reaching Anchorage. Good article, scary about the virus mutating in a second wave of much more lethal infections.


  https://www.adn.com/section/alaska-life/

Alaska Life
In 1918, a deadly outbreak of influenza reached Anchorage. Here’s how Alaskans responded
pencil Author: David Reamer | Histories of Anchorage clock Updated: 1 day ago calendar Published 1 day ago

Part of a continuing weekly series on local history by local historian David Reamer. Have a question about Anchorage history or an idea for a future article? Go to the form at the bottom of this story.

Around 10 a.m. on Nov. 11, 1918, news of the armistice that ended World War I reached Alaska. In Anchorage, church and school bells rang in celebration. All train whistles blew in joy. But the streets remained mostly empty. There were no cheering crowds or raucous parties, no parades or celebratory sermons. There was no public celebration. Instead, residents gathered in small groups within their homes, perhaps sharing a prohibited drink or two. Public gatherings — including schools, churches and theaters — were banned. Anchorage was under quarantine due to a pandemic.

The Spanish influenza, or Spanish flu, circled the globe from 1918 to 1919. Global death estimates range from 17 to 100 million.

The ongoing COVID-19 crisis is shaping the current Alaska understanding of epidemics, and there are numerous similarities, both shallow and revelatory, between the 1918-1919 Spanish flu and current pandemics. Most notably, those locales and individuals that abandoned practices that safeguarded themselves and those around them trailed greater death in their wake. Some Alaskans would have died of the Spanish flu regardless, but more died than were necessary.

In May 1918, the first news of a particularly virulent outbreak of influenza reached Anchorage, of a “mysterious malady which was raging through Spain the form and character of the grippe.” Alaskans commonly described what would today be called flu-like symptoms as a case of the grippe, a borrowed French term. An Oct. 25, 1918, Anchorage Daily Times article offered the contemporary understanding of the symptoms: “The disease is characterized by excessive sneezing, reddening and running of the eyes, running of the nose, chills followed by fever of 101 to 103 degrees, aching back and joints, loss of appetite and a general feeling of disability.”

The Spanish flu spread in waves. The virus of that first wave, in the spring of 1918, while notably contagious, was not especially deadly, more akin to seasonal flu. Primarily due to its isolation, Alaska was not impacted by the first wave. But in August 1918, a mutated and deadlier version of the Spanish flu appeared in Europe and began winding its way around the globe. On Oct. 9, 1918, Alaska Gov. Thomas Riggs wrote in his diary of “disturbing reports concerning Spanish influenza.” The pandemic, including its accompanying terror and death, had finally landed in Alaska.

Through late October 1918, Anchorage officials publicly downplayed the significance of the Spanish flu. The Anchorage Daily Times was the loudest mouthpiece for what could be called either damaging propaganda or valid attempts to prevent a panic. On Oct. 21, the Times claimed, “Old Jack Frost sure put the crimp into Spanish influenza that is raging in the states and Anchorage is immune.” On Oct. 29, the newspaper passed along the advice of local doctors: “Don’t be alarmed over influenza in Anchorage; there is none and what seems so is just ordinary, common every-day grippe.”

The doctors were wrong — either misinformed, misguided or lying. Only two days later, on Oct. 31, the Times announced that the newly created Anchorage health board had canceled all public gatherings due to the “epidemic of la grippe now prevailing in the community.” All public schools, churches, and theaters were closed. Even then, local doctors claimed the virus in Anchorage was not “a virulent form.”

After Nov. 11, passenger trains between Anchorage and Seward were canceled. A few days later, a new Territorial edict required all travelers to obtain a "health certificate from some physician that you have already undergone the siege with the flu before you will be permitted to travel.

Contrary to the published opinions of local doctors, the virus making its way through Anchorage was not the everyday cold or flu. It appears the first to die in Anchorage of the Spanish flu was Ed Walker, who worked as a shoeshine at the Central barbershop. The 30-year-old Walker, who as African-American, died Nov. 3.

The virus took the weak. Alex Jack, a “hunchback” Alaska Native youth, died on Nov. 8. The virus took the strong. After the death of “big, strong, robust” John Mr Mud on Nov. 19, locals realized the Spanish Flu was “no respecter of persons,” of one’s muscles or ruggedness. The virus took men and women, including Mary Gold on Nov. 29. Her husband ran a dry goods store on Fourth Avenue; he sold out and left Anchorage early the next year. The virus cared little for age, killing both the 50-year-old Chief Stepan and his 18-month-old child.

In 1918, there were neither flu vaccines nor antibiotics. The primary treatment was convalescence and a pain killer such as aspirin. During the outbreak, Loussac’s Drug Store advertised “To Avoid the influenza, take a box of our Cold Tablets and a bottle of Pine Balsam with Menthol and Eucalyptus.” Other local remedies pushed by pharmacists included quinine, Dover’s Powder [a painkiller], hot water bottles, saltwater gargles, cod liver oil and “abundant food.”

At best, these measures treated the symptoms. At worst, some of these remedies were health risks on their own. The most common active ingredient in cold pills at this time was phenacetin, banned in 1983 as a carcinogen and for damaging kidneys. Dover’s Powder was a cold drug with the active ingredients of an expectorant, opium and morphine. Quinine does not affect flu viruses, but higher dosages caused vomiting. The aspirin regimen suggested by national authorities was enough to increase the amount of fluid in lungs and cause hyperventilation. Thus, aspirin may have prompted more deaths during the pandemic.

By the end of November, the virus had burned out in Anchorage. On Nov. 26, the Anchorage board of health lifted the “flu siege” and permitted public gatherings. The local quarantine in Anchorage, described initially as a “precautionary measure,” appeared to work. While 28 people died in Anchorage that month, no subsequent deaths in town were linked to the Spanish flu. Elsewhere in Alaska, the virus raged longer and was more deadly.

The path of the virus in the Mat-Su region stands in notable contrast to Anchorage. While the spread of the pandemic was curtailed in Anchorage, it was actively spread in Mat-Su. The Alaska Engineering Commission (AEC) pressed forward with the construction of the Alaska Railroad, even as they carried the disease into Alaska Native villages. Per the Alaska Railroad Record, “At times, all the Indians in some of the villages were down with the illness, and the sick were cared for and the dead buried by Commission employees.”

The Alaska Railroad Record is a dispassionate witness. In November 1918, it noted that “construction work was materially retarded” due to the pervasiveness of the Spanish Flu amongst both area Alaska Natives and railroad laborers. One Record article is titled “Influenza Epidemic Among Indians Cost Commission More Than $2000.” Of the 28 dead in Anchorage, eight were Alaska Native, and at least 11 of the remaining 20 were AEC employees.

One Ahtna narrative describes the discovery of a Spanish flu-depopulated village. “They went from village to village finding many of the villagers sick or dead from the flu. He told of rounding a bend and seeing a small boy standing on the bank sobbing. In the background the village appeared deserted. No smoke rose from chimneys, no children playing in the yards, and no campfires burned.” For Mat-Su area Alaska Natives, the Spanish flu was one of a series of post-contact epidemics, from smallpox in the 1830s through polio, scarlet fever, and other outbreaks in the decades to come.

Though the Times claimed Anchorage residents “willingly complied with the regulations imposed,” the reality is that Alaskans everywhere chafed at the restrictions. Territory-wide, businesses, especially steamship companies, protested that quarantine edicts threatened their continued existence. Prominent Alaskans petitioned the governor for travel exemptions. All such petitions were denied.

This resistance is both relatable and deadly. Skagway provides the most illustrative example. On Feb. 21, 1919, Gov. Riggs wrote in his diary, “Skagway today partially lifted its influenza quarantine.” Just more than a month later, on March 25, Riggs wrote, “More influenza. This time it is at Skagway. On the 23rd it broke out with 40 cases yesterday 50 cases and one death. The only doctor in town is down with it.”

Lautaret, Ronald L. "Alaska's Greatest Disaster." In The Alaska Journal 1986: History and Arts of the North, Vol. 16, edited by Terrence Cole, 238-243. Anchorage: Alaska Northwest Publishing Company, 1986.

Diaries of Governor Thomas Riggs, July 8, 1918 to December 25, 1919. Alaska State Library, vilda.alaska.edu/digital/collection/cdmg21/id/16388

Shaginoff, Ingrid D. Chickaloon Wild: End of an Athabascan Family's Way of Life. Anchorage: Publication Consultants, 2017, 16.

Starko, Karen M. "Salicylates and Pandemic Influenza Mortality, 1918-1919 Pharmacology, Pathology, and Historic Evidence." Clinical Infectious Diseases 49, no. 9 (2009): 1405-1410.

[Brad Young]

Also, seriously listen to Dr. Fauci he is respected around world as one of the pre-eminent individuals in his field.  Seriously he is the best of the best, the US should be grateful for this guy and listening to every word that he says.

I'll bet $50.00 that the pathological liar/fraud in the inception fires him....

Looking at every month for 10 years gave them an average number of deaths per month.  It also provided a high and low water mark.  What they found was the number of deaths during the outbreak is significantly higher than normal and that looking at numbers from previous years the number of COVID-19 deaths were higher than reported, significantly higher.  I think when we look at the numbers this way in the US we will find the same thing because we do not have the means to test.

Yes. many more deaths than "usual" and they aren't being attributed to the virus because of lack of testing/certainty

Those that are saying that this is no worse than the flu or diabetes are painting a false narrative.

Yep. It isn't Ebola, but it's a serious virus.

Stay healthy everyone.

[F4?]

Reads like I have a lot of reading to do on the Spanish flu.
Crazy similar.

Hey Klink, both our boys were born at El Camino hospital. Nice facility and great pediatric doctors.

Yeah a little larger than Dominican.

[clink]

 methods and results

 https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/world/coronavirus-response-lessons-learned-intl/index.html

[F4?]

Yes, my wife wanted us to flee to Taiwan, but we would have been house bound for 2 weeks.
Plus I would have had to work nights to stay on US time.

But they have it well under control.

[clink]

 The body is out of the box.

 Scratch n' Sniff

[JC w KC redux]

The body is out of the box.

Pandora beat you to it.

Scratch n' Sniff

Better off to chop a line.

[clink]

 Once upon a time there was an enemy known but an invasion undetected...